Australia’s eastern states are in for another lashing of rain as a powerful low-pressure system develops off the coast, with flood-weary regions a possible target.

“Tuesday and Wednesday are the two biggest days in regards to rainfall and weather impacts,” the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Angus Hines said.

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Hines said it would be an anxious wait for residents on the NSW mid-north coast, who are still recovering from record floods in May that claimed the lives of three people and damaged hundreds of properties.

“The current event is shaping to bring most of the rainfall south ... but it would take a subtle shift ... and bring in some of that heavier rain into the mid north coast, which is extremely sensitive to rain,” he said.

The NSW central coast will cop up to 200mm along with damaging winds taking in areas from Sydney, the Hunter Valley and Illawarra regions as well as southern Queensland.

BOM issued a severe weather warning for damaging winds at about 11am on Monday.

“A rapidly deepening complex low pressure system is forecast to develop a vigorous Coastal Low offshore of the Mid North Coast overnight, then slowly track southwards during Tuesday,” the warning read.

“Winds are forecast to strengthen along the coastal fringe from Tuesday morning, extending to the northern ranges and their eastern lee slopes from Tuesday evening.”

Winds averaging 60-to-70 km/h, with peak gusts of around 100 km/h, are possible from Tuesday morning, becoming more likely from the afternoon in large parts of the east coast, including Sydney, Wollongong and Newcastle.

The system could potentially spread to eastern Victoria, including areas around Gippsland.

Flash flooding and riverine flooding, where banks could burst, are also a possibility, with wild and hazardous surf conditions expected.

The next Severe Weather Warning is due on Monday afternoon.